The Russian troop amassment and then the invasion of Ukraine left numerous people with many questions and convoluted answers. This article will clearly explain the historical context of the two countries, what each side of the current conflict wants, and what has transpired so far.
Russia, the largest country in the world with the second most powerful military, on the 24th of February, 2022, invaded its neighboring country, Ukraine, a country 28 times smaller with a significantly smaller military. These countries have been in incessant conflict for hundreds of years since when the Russian Empire existed. What exactly is Russia's rationale behind invading Ukraine? What does it want? And why is the West so inclined to defend Ukraine's sovereignty? The following sections of this article will address these various questions.
Russia's Concern
Let's address Russia's point of view in two parts. The first part will explore a strategic and historical explanation. The other will expand upon the current state of affairs.
A strategic lesson learned the hard way
Russia had been invaded numerous times by many regimes. Six times its invaders almost captured its capital city, Moscow, and six times they were repelled, some by military force and others because of the harsh winter. Napoleon, for one, conquered his way through Europe, punched a path through West Russia, and occupied Moscow. It was the unforgiving winter that forced him out. Over a century later, during the Second World War, Nazi forces set siege to the city and met with a fierce defense by the Russians, who in the end, reclaimed their capital.
So why is it that invaders reached the capital so many times? Where did Russia's defense fail? The western border of Russia is incredibly difficult to shield. Its sheer size, large plains, and the shared borders with multiple countries made its defense complicated. It left many large swathes of land void of any surveillance.
Moreover, even if an enemy was found breaching and invading, it took days for any defending force to reach and fight the invaders. This gave rise to the doctrine of 'buffer states.' These are essentially smaller puppet countries that would serve to stall any incoming invader. By the time the invasion force reaches its borders, significant numbers of Russian troops would be deployed and ready to defend the mainland. The USSR used this doctrine. Its collection of buffer states was called the 'Iron Curtain.' It extended far into Europe till Germany. After the Berlin Wall fell, so did the Iron Curtain. Following a few years, Russia started to seek some of its former buffer states back. Belarus is now a buffer state. With Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia a part of the NATO alliance, Putin doesn’t want to open another potential front with NATO through Ukraine, especially with its inclination to join NATO. This is Russia's primary reason for the invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and later in 2021. Its concerns are valid, but its method of solving the issue is problematic.
Ukraine's perspective
Russia has always sought to gain alliances and security through military force, while the West pushes diplomacy and economy. This makes neutral nations afraid of Russia and in favor of the West. Moreover, Russia’s long history of being a dictatorship(and a monarchy) doesn’t appeal to countries like progressive countries. Ukraine is one of them. Given the complicated history these countries have had over the centuries, the nation isn’t willing to be oppressed by dictatorship anymore.
Historical context
The Russian Empire repeatedly tried to crush ethnic minorities in favor of spreading the monarch’s ethnicity and language. Russia is a land of numerous ethnic groups, with the Russians being the majority for centuries. Tsars from Peter I and Nicholas I to dictators like Lenin & Stalin tried to make Ukraine more like Russia. ‘Russification’ was the conversion of minor cultures and linguistic groups into Russian. Throughout the Empire’s history, leaders have used censorship of literature, banning art, and methods of violence to assimilate these minorities. Ukraine was one of these groups.
Russia and Ukraine have always had a hostile history. Ukraine was invaded multiple times when the Tsars rules. Later, when Lenin came to power, he annexed it after four years of war. The country didn’t see peace during the USSR’s reign. Over six million Ukrainians starved to death when Stalin took control. He had ordered all food to be transported to major Russian cities and military installations, leaving rural areas with nothing to eat.
Later in 1991, Ukraine finally declared itself an independent country, with its sovereignty only challenged by Russia.
In recent years, the country was yet again invaded by Russian forces in 2014. It was a virtually bloodless invasion where Russian troops amassed and surged into Crimea and some Eastern parts of Ukraine.
Many people wondered why Ukraine was even fighting a superior military force. Given its history with autocracy, oppression, and Russia, it is no surprise that Ukraine chose to fight than surrender.
NATO's Agenda
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization(NATO) has only one goal: to protect its member countries with full force. It was made a Western counter-alliance to the Soviet Union’s Warsaw Pact. NATO is a purely defensive alliance that considers any attack on one of its member states as an attack on all the states. It has grown to be robust and capable, with militaries from 30 different countries working together. It has always been open to accepting democratic nations into the organization, which offers countries a non-Russian aligning option.
From a strategic standpoint, NATO acquiring Ukraine would open up a massive front for a potential war with Russia and cut off any possible buffer states. This thereby gives NATO a significant strategic advantage over Russia.
The War so far
This section will not detail the war’s progress but address the overview and some notable points. Putin’s “special military operation” has lasted for months now with no significant military victory yet. Many assumed Ukraine would fail under Russia’s presumed military prowess. However, not only did the Ukrainians put up a fierce fight, the Russians have proven to be combat ineffective in many battles, failing to achieve even a single strategic victory.
The Russian Offense
Given the size of Russia’s military, it is understandable to assume it would win easily. But severe logistical issues, a broken supply chain, poor troop morale, and outdated equipment have had drastic consequences on the invasion progress.
Logistics, Supply Chain & Equipment
Every war demands a continuous supply of resources like ammunition, weaponry, food, fuel, and gear. It is often militaries with the best logistics that win sustained conflicts. When troops lack resources, their effectiveness plummets. Without fuel, tanks and trucks are useless, and troops without food, ammunition, and gear are weaker and vulnerable to enemy attacks. Moreover, if the equipment is outdated, they cannot fight a better-equipped enemy. Russian forces are suffering all of these problems. The low level of morale among the soldiers makes matters worse.
Sanctions
The sheer amount of sanctions imposed by numerous countries on Russia severely affected military equipment production. Sanctions from multiple countries like EU members, Australia, the United States, Japan, and many more cause a lack of trade, rendering Russia limited access to raw materials and economic standing. With no raw materials and funding, low production affects overall military capability. For instance, tank production rate is way behind the rate at which they're being destroyed. Moreover, even if the Russian industry keeps up, without proper logistics, production would be redundant.
The Ukrainian Defense
The Ukrainian military has done a stunning job so far. They have ferociously been defending their country. Their troop morale is high and has immense support from Western powers, militaristic and economical.
The US has poured in significant resources to train and equip Ukraine’s military prior to the war. Their command structure is now identical to that of American forces. This structure has been tried and tested in many wars and battles. Even now, it proves to be efficient against Russia’s military superiority.
Countries like the US, UK, France, and Germany have supplied Ukraine with weaponry and equipment. The US military’s Javelin and Stinger anti-tank systems have rendered Russian tanks vulnerable and ineffective against Ukrainian forces. There are countless videos where these missiles are seen destroying Russian helicopters and tanks. The US alone has armed Ukraine with almost a third of its Javelin stockpile. EU states have given aircraft, radar systems, rifles, and other weapons of war. Unlike Russia, Ukraine’s supply chain and logistics remain solid and efficient.
As I write this article(three months into the war), Russia has gained no victory. Even the attempt to seize the capital, Kyiv, has failed. Cities have been subject to intense air and missile strikes.
What happens next?
So now that we’ve addressed the why and what of the conflict, how will this war go forward? Wars last for years. It wouldn’t be right to predict anything just a few months into it. But here’s what could happen.
Russia is unlikely to back down. It would be an international embarrassment to pull out unvictorious from a weaker country. The country has dedicated many resources to the invasion. It would turn into a devastating economic and political loss. On the other hand, if it doesn’t halt the conflict, the sanctions and financial losses will catch up and severely impact other branches of governance like industry, food production, trade, defense, international relations, etc.
As long as it has the West’s support and good troop morale, Ukraine may be able to survive the war. If it can manage to keep Russia off balance by not allowing any footing in strategic cities, Ukraine may as well win this war. But again, it is too early to predict anything conclusively.
Putin keeps warning about using nukes. However, nuclear war is improbable. Although using nukes on Ukraine may not trigger a nuclear war by itself, the heightened alert and possible escalation may. Russia would be making a grave mistake if it took to these weapons of mass destruction. The West, collectively, can unleash much more nuclear devastation upon Russia than the other way around. It would essentially be suicide.
The best way forward would be to negotiate a deal between NATO, Russia, and Ukraine. All the sides of this conflict have reasonable concerns. In my opinion, NATO must officially decline Ukraine’s entrance into the alliance to address Russia’s concerns, and in turn, Russia must refrain from ever inciting conflict in Ukraine. However, given the poor track record of these nations in committing to treaties, this is far-fetched to succeed. I only hope to see democratic Ukraine emerge largely intact from this war, regardless of winning or losing it.